This Week’s Mortgage Rate Forecast:

Rates could be volatile

Two big events this week could see rates bounce around a bit – the Fed meeting on Wednesday and inflation data on Friday. The bigger picture is still that rates will slowly improve as inflation concerns ease and are replaced by concerns about a recession. We could see rates vary day-to-day this week more than usual, and whether we end the week better or not could depend on Friday’s inflation data.

What’s affecting rates this week:

• Fed meeting: The Fed will release their rate increase (currently expected to be .75%) and policy statement on Wednesday. Remember, a Fed rate hike is NOT a direct hike to mortgage rates. Instead, mortgage rates usually get at least slightly better after a Fed rate hike.
• Fed press conference: Held after the meeting, Fed Chair Powell’s press conference usually causes some movement to rates.
• Economic data: Although this is a full weak of economic and housing data, it is Friday’s inflation data that is most likely to affect mortgage rates.